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Up to date Report & Data Illustrate Distributed Photo voltaic Pricing & Design Tendencies

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We’re happy to announce the discharge of the newest version of Berkeley Lab’s Monitoring the Solar annual report, describing pricing and design developments for grid-connected, distributed photo voltaic photovoltaic (PV) and PV-plus-storage programs in the USA. The report is predicated on information from roughly 3.2 million programs put in nationally by means of year-end 2022, representing greater than 80% of all programs put in to this point.

The report, revealed in slide-deck format, is accompanied by a story abstract, interactive information visualizations, a public information file, and abstract information tables, all out there by means of the hyperlink above. The authors will host a webinar summarizing key findings from the report on October 4th at 10:00 am Pacific. Please register for the webinar right here: https://lbnl.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_HJi2ka8iR-KCU7eY5du4AA (hyperlink is exterior).

The next are a number of key findings from the newest version of the report.

Residential programs are getting bigger. Residential system sizes have been rising steadily over the previous 20 years, pushed by declining prices and rising module efficiencies (see Determine 1). As of 2022, the median measurement of latest residential installs was 7.2 kW, in comparison with simply 2.4 kW in 2000. As with many components of the evaluation, these outcomes are closely pushed by California, which makes up a big share of the pattern, and the place residential system sizes are comparatively small. Median residential PV system sizes in most states have been effectively above 8 kW in 2022, and in lots of states have been above 9 kW. Non-residential system sizes have adopted a extra irregular trajectory over time and span a large measurement vary. The vast majority of programs are comparatively small, with a median measurement of 25 kW in 2022, however the distribution has a protracted higher tail.

Determine 1. System Dimension Tendencies over Time. For the needs of this report, “non-residential” programs embrace non-residential roof-mounted programs of any measurement and ground-mounted programs as much as 5 MW-AC. Picture: Berkeley Lab’s Monitoring the Solar annual report

Battery storage is more and more being paired with each new and present PV programs. In 2022, 10% of all new residential PV installations and seven% of all non-residential installations included battery storage. Hawaii had, by far, the very best residential attachment charges in 2022 (96%), whereas attachment charges in California have been 11%, and most different states had attachment charges of 5-10%. As well as, storage is more and more being added to pre-existing PV programs. In 2022, 23% of all new paired PV+storage programs within the U.S. consisted of storage retrofits onto present PV programs.

PV system costs rose in nominal phrases, however continued to fall in actual, inflation-adjusted {dollars}. From the primary quarter of 2021 by means of the final quarter of 2022, median put in costs for stand-along PV programs rose in nominal {dollars} by $0.1-0.3/W (or 4-13%), relying available on the market phase. For residential and enormous non-residential programs, the rise in nominal costs was under the speed of inflation, and thus costs in actual inflation-adjusted phrases fell by roughly $0.2/W in each segments. That is in keeping with the common fee of actual worth declines over the previous decade. The report additionally presents pricing developments for paired PV+storage programs and discusses the the explanation why reported put in costs might differ from different frequent PV pricing benchmarks.

Determine 2. Quarterly Median Nationwide Put in Costs over 2021-2022. These costs characterize the up-front worth paid by the shopper, previous to receipt of any incentives, and might embrace loan-financing charges bundled into the costs charged by installers. For the needs of this report, “giant non-residential” programs are bigger than 100 kW, capped at 5 MW-AC if ground-mounted. Picture: Berkeley Lab’s Monitoring the Solar

PV system costs range extensively throughout particular person initiatives. Amongst stand-alone PV programs, put in costs range by roughly $2/W between the twentieth and eightieth percentile values for each residential and small non-residential prospects, and by roughly $1.3/W for big non-residential prospects (see Determine 3). That pricing variability displays variations in challenge traits in addition to options of the native market, coverage, and regulatory setting. The report exhibits how put in costs range based mostly on numerous challenge traits, together with system sizing and module and inverter expertise, in addition to variations throughout states and installers. The report additionally features a multi-variate regression that gives a extra exact estimation of the results of key pricing drivers associated to system design, market options, and installer expertise.

Determine 3. Put in-Value Distributions for Stand-Alone PV Methods Put in in 2022. Berkeley Lab’s Monitoring the Solar

We thank the U.S. Division of Vitality Photo voltaic Vitality Applied sciences Workplace for his or her assist of this work, in addition to the quite a few people and organizations who generously offered information for this ongoing effort.

Berkeley Lab’s Monitoring the Solar annual report PDF

Courtesy of Electrical energy Markets & Coverage (EMP) Berkeley Lab

 

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